Session I & II: Change in North and the Regional Security

Change in North Korea

by Chon, Hyun Joon

1. Introduction  

The Chairman of National Defence Commission(NDC) Kim Jong Il made a six-day visit to China starting January 15 this year. The significance of this trip lies in the fact that he made an observation tour to Shanghai and Fudong area which are the representative showcases of Chinas economic reform and openings.

Such a visit generated a hopeful expectation that North Korea might adopt reform-minded opening up policies. Possibility of new changes in North Korea is also reflected in the editorial of Jan. 4 edition of this years Rodong Shinmun (newspaper of the Workers Party).

In the editorial, Kim Jong Il urged that "we must solve all the problems under a new perspective and a new height,"¹ which confirms North Koreas intention of change. Nevertheless, North Korea watchers in the world as well as in South Korea cannot help questioning the nature of intended change in North Korea.

Is North Korea really changing? Is it a fundamental change or a superficial one? Is it a change of tactic or a change of strategy? What is the true nature of change in North Korea?

In this paper, I shall evaluate the intended change in North Korea and speculate the nature and degree of change pursued by present North Korean regime.

2. Evaluation of Kim Jong Il's new perspective  

We may broadly distinguish two types of change: change of the system and change within the system.² Change of the system literally implies a comprehensive change from one system to another system. In this sense, a change from Socialism to Capitalism and the collapse of socialist system constitute change of the system. Such a process can be carried out either by a prompt decision of a top leader or through popular revolts. In the case of North Korea, change pursued by Kim Jong Il does not feature change of the system since it is neither a fundamental reform of socialism nor revolution from above.

Rather, the change that Kim Jong Il is intending to carry out seems like change within the system for the purpose of consolidating North Korean our-style socialist system. Therefore, we may interpret the intention of Kim Jong Il urging for new perspective as an attempt to find a way to strengthen the existing socialist system with a new perspective.

a. Level of Change

The change pursued by Kim Jong Il is limited to policy changes in the field of inter-Korea relations and foreign affairs. The primary purpose of change is to resolve its economic difficulty. In the field of inter-Korea relations, North Korea has been aiming at utilizing and maximizing economic support from Kim Dae-Jung government.

North Koreas act of accepting the proposal of inter-Korean summit and other talks may be understood in this context. As South Koreas north-directed support decreases due to bad public opinion and aggravating economic situation in the South, North Korea is now regulating inter-governmental talks.

Consequently, a momentary lull in the inter-Korean relations is becoming evident. In the field of foreign affairs, North Korea is focusing on improving foreign relations with the EU and other capitalist countries since North Koreas relations with Bush administration face new challenges.

The change in North Koreas foreign policy and the normalization of relations with other capitalist economic power excluding the US seems like a tactic to intensify pressure on the U.S. North Koreas foreign policy expressed as so-called comprehensive defense diplomacy seems thus far successful.

b. Main actor of Change

Change is dominantly directed by Kim Jong Il. North Korea regime features a suryong(leader) monolithic ruling system, in which the leader monopolizes absolute power equivalent that of the supreme being. As a successor of 'Suryong(The Great Leader),' Kim Jong Il exercises absolute power, and guides people and the Party, Government, Military elites based on his own personal judgment. Radical measures, which transcend the existing way of thinking in North Korea, are thought to be originated from Kim Jong Il. Such measures can be listed as suspension of the Korean War commemoration function, opening up of Kae-Sung region, restoration of South-North Korean railway connection (Kyongyui railway), inter Korean working-level military meetings, and development of IT industry.

Power elites in North Korea are yet to play a role as a chief actor for changes. Power elites in North Korea are carefully selected by Kim Jong Il himself, therefore, they show absolute loyalty to Kim Jong Il. As Kim Jong Il's loyal evangelist, Party, government, military elites may play an advisory role by collecting public opinion, giving information, and suggesting policies to Kim Jong Il.

Therefore, they can propose adjustment of the extent and speed of reform. Considering its strong conservative tendency, military elite group is likely to be an significant variable for the direction of open policy.

People in North Korea can hardly be the main actor for changes since they are unable to express their opinions in an organized and collective form. Nevertheless, people are the primary sufferers of economic hardship. Taking that complaints of the people are delivered to the leader through various channel, people can be an indirect factor that may affect the policy choice. Peoples reaction to the opening up may be two folds:

Firstly, opening up may induce spread of capitalistic thinking.³ This may generate collective action of people. The other possibility is that opening up may induce stronger loyalty to Kim Jong Il, which may further strengthen the regime. Only if people become more loyal to Kim Jong Il in the process of opening up, the regime will carry out further opening up to a greater extent.

c. Direction of change

Direction of the change pursued by Kim Jong Il will be limited to the field of economy rather than that of politics. It is likely that changes will be directed towards setting a special economic zone or developing IT industry with a small group of gifted people.⁴

This is the optimal alternative way for North Korea to obtain foreign money while preventing ideological confusion for two reasons. Firstly, development of IT industry will involve only small number of specially selected people. Secondly, access of ordinary people to the special economic zone can be easily controlled. It is expected that North Korea will keep limiting the extent of opening up until North Korea is surely convinced of little ideological agitation among people.

Considering Kim Jong Il's personality, he is likely to come up with a bold decision of completely opening up Kaesung and Sinyuiju region. It is also likely that Kim Jong Il will concentrate all the efforts and capacity on the IT industry in the style of speed battle. Kim Jong Il is currently providing full support to Kim Il Sung University, the first high school in all provinces, and Chosun Computer Centre (KCC) for the development of IT skills. In recent years, his effort seems to bear some fruitful result.⁵

3. Conclusion

It is believed that the only person who clearly understands the fundamental problems of North Korea is Kim Jong Il himself. In order to solve the problems, he stresses a new perspective as well as the importance of proficiency.

However, most of top power elites are unable to grasp the intention of Kim Jong Il. They seem to be confused and not know how the wind blows. This must have affected Kim Jong Il to reach a conclusion that only a new generation consists of youth in their teens and 20s is capable of seeking alternatives for socialist development under a new perceptive.

Joongang Broadcasting(Chosun central Broadcasting system) emphasized in their report on April 22, "in the recent years 2-30 scientists has obtained excellent results in the field of designing high tech precision machine and the biggest integrated circuits filled with spirit to stride along the high technology of the 21st IT industry."

IT industry requires great number of computer specialists. Kim Jong Il is seeking to improve relations with capitalistic countries in order to cultivate a group of IT specialists. He sends trainees to capitalist countries such as Austrailia and England and provides capitalistic education by inviting specialists from those countries.

Of course, the trainees who get the opportunity to receive capitalist training are chosen through a tough selection process based on their loyalty to Kim Jong Il and good social backgrounds.

Despite such efforts, the success of Kim Jong Il national development strategy of building Kangsung Daekuk (a great country that is militarily strong and economically prosperous) based on IT industry is still in question.

For North Korea to nurture a new generation which has expertise in IT industry, it is needed for youth to have free access to internet. Social control issue, however, does not permit free internet access to people.

IT industry also requires ample capital and scientific technology. Lack of improvement in North-U.S. relations, however, impedes importation of advance technology from western countries. Such adverse reality for the development of IT industry raise a doubt on the success of recent development strategy of North Korea.

Only if Kim Jong Il boldly changes tactics and radically improves inter-Korea relations as well as US-North Korea relations, importation of advanced high-tech computers and a short-term development of high scientific technology in North Korea will be possible. Development of scientific technology centered on talented new generation bureaucrats who are absolutely supportive and loyal is thus entirely depends on North Koreas rational choice.

Footnote

1) Rodong Shinmun, Jan, 4, 2001, p. 2.

2) Lewis A. Coser, "Social Conflict and the Theory of Social Change," in Amitai Etzioni and Eva Etzioni-Halivy(ed.), Social Change: Sources, Patterns, and Consequences, 2nd edition (New York: Basic Books Inc., 1973), pp. 118-119.

3) Capitalistic economic activities are already being activated in North Korean society. See "Report on a field study of adjacent area between North Korea and China," Kyongnam graduate school of North Korean Study(July 9-16, 2000), p. 14.

4) Kim Jong-Il's computer skill is known to be above the level of general computer specialists.

5) "MyoHyang Mountain Badug" computer programme won the awards in various world competitions. "Hanaro Telecommunication" put this program on "Hananet" from December 12, 2000. Korean Yonhap News Agency (Dec. 12, 2000)